How political changes will look following contrasting outcomes of the conflict in Ukraine within certain countries, especially Serbia, will depend primarily on political decisions that will be made. Serbian politics is traditionally indecisive, so this time around it will again probably wait for the decisions to be made by others, and the public will complain about the injustice of the world, the western world of course.
The idea of a new world order provides strategic motivation for Russian aggression against Ukraine. The question, of course, is whether the means lead to the end.
What is the end goal? Viewed politically, the Russian authorities are striving for a balance of power that could be called a world council, i.e., the best formal agreement between the great powers regarding the division of spheres of influence and the procedure by which they would agree about governing the world. And how to govern Europe, especially when it comes to Russia and America.
The economic aspect of this strategy is unclear. That’s because it could be the very opposite of trade and investment globalisation, and would be replaced by some kind of regionalism, or economic cooperation within economic blocs. The problem with this is that it’s uncertain whether it would suit China. And alliance with China is certainly an essential condition to even discuss the idea of establishing a new world order.
The aggression against Ukraine was intended to demonstrate that Russian interests must be respected, because it will be seen that the world cannot ignore its military power and importance to the world economy, primarily as a supplier of energy and raw materials, and to some extent also food. The success reflected in the accepting of the establishing of a new world order that would recognise Russia’s global role, and above all its European role, would require (i) the political will of the Russian people, (ii) a swift military victory in Ukraine, and (iii) economic disruption, primarily in Europe, as a result of rising prices of Russian imports.
It isn’t certain whether the new world order that will emerge will be the one that the Russian authorities are striving for or some other. If the second option occurs, a new world order with reduced Russian influence will emerge. When it comes to the Balkan countries, the importance of the European union will increase, as will the damage to those countries that have remained outside it, for one reason or another
As things currently stand, none of these three conditions have been met by the military aggression launched against Ukraine. The occupation of Ukraine is persisting, there is a fear that political support could be lost among the Russian people and the elite, while the economic consequences of very strict, comprehensive and unanimous sanctions are proving tougher for the Russian economy than for Europe’s, not to mention the American economy.
It isn’t certain whether the new world order that will emerge will be the one that the Russian authorities are striving for or some other. If a convincing victory doesn’t come in the war in Ukraine, and the political outcome is detrimental to Russian military goals, coupled with the economic problems that Russia will face, the order that will be established following Russia’s relative failure in demonstrating its might will be detrimental to Russia’s influence in Europe and around the world. This will be partly due, and probably most importantly, to increased unity in the European Union and NATO. China’s influence will increase, particularly if it remains committed to preserving the global economic system, because it has a great interest in exporting and investing in foreign countries. Thus a new world order will be created with diminished Russian influence, which must have consequences for the Russian economy and political scene.
It isn’t difficult to see what the consequences will be for the Balkan countries. The importance of the European Union will increase, as will the damage to those countries that have remained outside it, for one reason or another. How political changes will look like in certain countries, especially in Serbia, will depend primarily on the political decisions that will be made. Serbian politics is traditionally indecisive, so this time it will probably wait for others to make decisions, and the public will complain about the injustice of the world, the West of course.