People are increasingly leaving Serbia, but they are spending much less time abroad. Temporary work abroad is a far greater cause of labour shortages than permanent emigrations from the country. Our temporary and circular emigrants mostly generate their earnings outside Serbia, then spend them in the country. That has its positive and negative aspects, but it is already our reality.
Demand for labour has long been increasing under the influence of economic growth and investments, primarily in construction, industry and IT services. On the other hand, the supply of labour is decreasing, mostly due to a rapid decline in the working age population as a result of the large Baby Boom generation retiring, but also as a result of increased labour migration. As such, the biggest labour market problem in this decade won’t be unemployment, as it was in the past, but rather an increase in the quality of jobs.
Serbia isn’t leading the way on technological development, nor are our labour costs at a level that would mean that automation could seriously jeopardise employment over the medium term. On the other hand, current labour shortages in sectors that are recording expansion, such as construction and some services, are already a reality, but that will continue to predominantly relate to temporary migrant workers with modest qualifications and no lasting aspirations to migrate.
Digital nomads are another story. They are an attractive phenomenon that draws attention, but their number is not, and cannot be, large. Apart from that, they are by definition an unstable and fickle grouping. Many countries have already introduced benefits similar to ours, competition is strong among attractive European cities, so attracting digital nomads can’t be built into some more serious strategy for the development of human resources.
Current labour shortages in sectors that are recording expansion, such as construction and some services, are already a reality, but that will continue to predominantly relate to temporary migrant workers with modest qualifications and no lasting aspirations to migrate.
On the other hand, circular labour migrations are already the predominant reason why our people head abroad. That wasn’t the case until around 2015. When we look at data on the total number of emigrants from Serbia in the main recipient countries, they are mostly stable countries that are not growing or are growing slowly. On the other hand, the number of emigrants leaving Serbia over the course of a single year was increasing steadily and rapidly until the outbreak of the pandemic, almost tripling over the past decade. In other words, people are increasingly leaving Serbia, but they are spending much less time abroad.
Temporary work abroad is a far greater cause of labour shortages than permanent emigrations from the country. For example, in 2019, more than 60,000 of our citizens received residence permits in the EU for the first time, while at the same time around 50,000 of them – not necessarily the same individuals – returned to the country. Thus, net emigration to the EU was perhaps only 5,000-10,000, but the number of those working outside Serbia for most of the year probably exceeded 40,000. Our temporary and circular emigrants mostly generate their earnings outside Serbia, then spend them in the country. That has its positive and negative aspects, but it is already our reality.
