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Iosif Vangelatos, General Manager, Inos Balkan

Proud of Tripling Trade Volume

Inos Balkan already possessed extensive expertise in the recycling sector, with its collection and processing centres, while it has today transformed itself successfully to...

Aris Karousos, CEO of Eko Serbia

Drivers Know Why They Choose Eko

Two decades ago, when this company launched its operations in Serbia, the desire was for the EKO brand to become synonymous with reliability, quality...

Danilo Đurović, General Manager, Autotechnica Serbia – Hertz

Introducing Flex Drive

As part of the Autohellas Group, which has been the absolute leader of Greece’s automotive sector since 1974, Hertz is more than just a...

Nikos Veropoulos, Owner, Veropoulos

Super Vero, Super Successful

For two decades already, company Veropoulos has been known on our market for its unique offer and high-quality products at promotional prices, but also...

Panagiotis Pitsikos, CEO, Autostop Interiors

The Best Is Yet to Come

Company Autostop Interiors was established in 2013 and specialises in manufacturing car floor mats and leather covers. These 10 years have been a journey...

Milojko Arsić, professor of the University of Belgrade Faculty of Economics

Uncertain Gains

Although 2024’s economic growth could be only slightly higher than this year’s, the fundamentals of that growth could be far more solid. However, a lot depends on geopolitical risks

The Serbian economy could achieve slightly faster GDP growth during the next year than it has this year, on condition that the situation doesn’t worsen significantly in the world economy, and particularly in the European economies, and that Serbia’s relations with the EU don’t deteriorate. GDP growth could reach 2.5-3% in 2024, which at first glance appears to be a modest increase compared to this year. However, it is important to consider that this year’s growth of 2% was largely a result of the one-off recovery of agriculture from last year’s drought, as well as the unusually high increase in construction activity. If not for these one-off factors that cannot be counted on reoccurring next year, this year’s GDP growth would have stood at around 1%.

The expected increase in the rate of GDP growth is based on the assumption that world market prices of energy and other primary products will remain at the current level over the coming year, but also that the European economies will grow somewhat faster than they did this year. Increases in state spending ahead of the extraordinary elections will have a positive impact on the growth of the economy in the first months of next year, but this effect will be short-lived and modest. On the other hand, interest rates, which will remain at a high level, will inhibit the stronger acceleration of economic growth.

The possible worsening of Serbia’s relations with the EU, which is the source of the majority of investments and loans in Serbia, and which receives the majority of Serbian export products, would impact on decelerating economic growth

High interest rates will have a negative impact on investments, including FDI, and will particularly impact activities such as construction, the production of capital equipment and consumer goods. The expansionary fiscal policy that was implemented in the last quarter of 2023 will slow the pace at which inflation declines, which will prolong the need for the National Bank of Serbia to implement a restrictive monetary policy, and this will in turn slow the economy’s recovery in the second half of next year.

The predicted growth could be lower if some of the geopolitical risks materialise, leading to a significant increase in energy prices. The possible worsening of Serbia’s relations with the EU, which is the source of the majority of investments and loans in Serbia, and which receives the majority of Serbian export products, would impact on decelerating economic growth. Finally, a poor agricultural season, which is becoming increasingly common due to climate change, could reduce GDP growth.

We expect inflation to continue to slow in the year ahead, but for it to be slightly higher than predicted in the government’s official documents. The reasons for this are the expansive fiscal policy in the pre-election period, rising labour costs, as well as the postponed increase in prices controlled by the administration. We expect that the average inflation rate over the next year could total 6-7%, while inflation would stand at around 5% by year’s end, which means that inflation would be halved compared to this year.

Comment

Census Results Cause Concern

The Ministry of Education claims to be exerting ongoing efforts to reform education, but census results indicate the need for more work. The “Platform...

By Iva Draškić Vićanović Ph.D., Dean of the University of Belgrade Faculty of Philology

Restore Teachers’ Dignity

The proposals presented in our Platform are viable over the short term, require no large and lasting reforms and could lead to major visible...

Comment by Prof. dr Slobodan Zečević

The Mirage of the European Oasis

Serbia officially began EU accession negotiations in January 2014. Over the subsequent decade, 22 of the 35 accession negotiation chapters have been opened and...

Plamena Halacheva, Deputy Head of the Delegation of the European Union to Serbia

Easier Access to the Western Balkans’ Single Market

The EU aims to involve Western Balkans partners with its Member States on equal terms, fostering a reform partnership that’s oriented towards the future...

From the Seized Tobacco, 7 Tons of the Highest Quality Organic Fertilizer Were Obtained

Over 5 tons of illegal cut tobacco, as much as 3.5 tons of leaf tobacco, 26,000 boxes of cigarettes,...

Balkan Borders Blur as Free Labor Movement Pact Launches

Marking a significant shift in the labor markets of Southeast Europe, Serbia, Albania, and North Macedonia have forged an...

Southeast Europe Unites in Support for Ukraine at Tirana Summit

In a striking demonstration of unity from Tirana, Southeast European leaders, together with Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenski, have collectively...

Serbia Commits €5.4 Billion to Renewable Energy by 2030

Serbia's state-owned power company, Elektroprivreda Srbije (EPS), has announced an ambitious plan to invest €5.4 billion in renewable energy...

Serbia and Angola Cement Cultural Bonds with New Cooperation Programme

Serbia and Angola have inked a Cultural Cooperation Programme set to span from 2024 to 2026, as announced by...

Balkan Borders Blur as Free Labor Movement Pact Launches

Marking a significant shift in the labor markets of Southeast Europe, Serbia, Albania, and North Macedonia have forged an...

Serbia Commits €5.4 Billion to Renewable Energy by 2030

Serbia's state-owned power company, Elektroprivreda Srbije (EPS), has announced an ambitious plan to invest €5.4 billion in renewable energy...

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Serbia Awards Distinctions to Notable Personalities on National Day

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Western Balkans Eye EU Membership by 2028

At the esteemed Munich Security Conference, a cornerstone event in global security discourse, leaders from North Macedonia, Albania, and...

Balkan Borders Blur as Free Labor Movement Pact Launches

Marking a significant shift in the labor markets of Southeast Europe, Serbia, Albania, and North Macedonia have forged an...

Serbia Commits €5.4 Billion to Renewable Energy by 2030

Serbia's state-owned power company, Elektroprivreda Srbije (EPS), has announced an ambitious plan to invest €5.4 billion in renewable energy...

Serbia and Angola Cement Cultural Bonds with New Cooperation Programme

Serbia and Angola have inked a Cultural Cooperation Programme set to span from 2024 to 2026, as announced by...

Serbia Awards Distinctions to Notable Personalities on National Day

In a ceremonial tribute to Serbia's National Day, President Aleksandar Vučić presented awards to a host of esteemed individuals...

Western Balkans Eye EU Membership by 2028

At the esteemed Munich Security Conference, a cornerstone event in global security discourse, leaders from North Macedonia, Albania, and...
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