Will the current avalanche of discontent inundating the streets of Serbian cities soon be nothing but a fading memory, like the seemingly endless rain that has suddenly been replaced by a hot summer? Will the latest crisis in Kosovo – which continues to occupy the minds of citizens much more than the protests – fade in intensity, or will it only deepen, as some analysts are predicting? These are the questions bursting from the suitcases of every Serbian citizen and diplomat slowly preparing for their summer break
The history of previous protests in Serbia and tensions in Kosovo provide possible answers that could predict future developments, but that doesn’t free us of doubts over whether we are confronted by different versions of “black swans”, i.e., possible sudden unforeseen changes with extreme consequences. One of them is the maturing of the Serbian electorate (and the opposition) and its strong resolve to progress to the conquering of democratic freedoms through a series of minor victories, while another is for the stubbornness of Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti to become a serious burden for Western diplomats to handle.