Paying £5, or €5.9 for a cup of coffee in London, or $7 in New York, seems hard to imagine from today’s perspective, but it could soon become a reality due to a “perfect storm” of economic and environmental conditions in the main coffee-growing regions, reports the BBC.
“Global raw coffee prices are now at their highest level ever, due to a combination of problematic crop conditions, market circumstances, and depleted supplies,” says analyst Judy Ganes.
This trend is not new, as an unusual frost in 2021 destroyed coffee plantations in Brazil, the world’s largest producer of “arabica”. As a result, buyers turned to countries like Vietnam, the primary producer of the “robusta” variety, commonly used in instant blends.
However, farmers there have faced the worst drought in nearly a decade, and due to that, as well as the prospect of higher profits, they have shifted to other crops. Meanwhile, robusta exporters in Colombia, Ethiopia, Peru, and Uganda have increased production, but still lack the capacity to make up for losses in the market.
As a result, raw “robusta” and “arabica” prices are now at record highs, which is affecting the price of every cup of coffee.
British coffee trader Paul Armstrong, commenting on current developments, expects that coffee lovers may soon face what he called the “crazy possibility” that a cup of coffee in the UK could cost more than £5.
In an interview with the BBC, he mentioned that he has recently raised prices, but noted that demand continues to grow, adding that some cafés, whose contracts are expiring in the coming months, will soon have to decide whether to pass on the increased costs to their customers.