This isn’t the first time that elections in Serbia have been followed by protests. And instead of leading to a reduction of political tension, it seems as though they are fuelling it
The question of whether these elections could become a stone in the shoe of the government depends on whether international arbitration will be forthcoming, or whether these problems will be resolved through the OSCE. If it came to that, the government could be under pressure not only with regard to election procedures, but also – as shown by the recent European Parliament discussion – with regard to other topics, such as recognition of Kosovo’s independence and the imposing of sanctions on Russia.
The opposition’s dilemma over whether or not to reject the mandates that it won is linked to the question of the kind of extension of the political struggle being planned. If they accept the mandates, the opposition could continue questioning election regularity verbally and institutionally, but there’s no doubt that contesting the elections from the parliamentary benches would appear less convincing to ordinary citizens, and even their own supporters, than if they refused to accept the mandates.
Even if Belgrade elections were repeated, a question remains over whether the opposition, which would face the task of mobilising all those who don’t vote for the government, would really succeed in securing a majority
However, rejecting mandates would only have a marked effect if the opposition is able, on the one hand, to gather together a critical mass for lasting protests, while on the other hand securing unwavering support from key power centres in the West. Only if this is the case could they create a serious political crisis and force repeat elections. If they cannot secure those two conditions, rejecting their mandates would only condemn them to non-parliamentary status, and that would probably mark the end of such opposition. Of course, a national assembly devoid of opposition MPs would reduce the legitimacy of the highest legislative body and call into question the country’s international reputation. However, considering the development goals and economic objectives that the government is setting for itself, it seems as though a mere boycott of the opposition, without significant support from citizens and pressure from the outside world, wouldn’t bother them much, so repeating these elections isn’t an option for the government.
What could possibly happen, as a kind of intermediate solution, is new city elections that would come in the case that the ruling coalition fails to secure the required majority to form a new city government. In that case, new elections would likely be held, together with elections for all other local assemblies.
However, a question remains over whether those new elections would bring more support to the government or the opposition. The ruling coalition is closer to its goal and could, with the maximum use of all resources, more easily achieve the required majority. In order to achieve its own goal, it would be necessary for the opposition to gather under the same banner and mobilise for election participation all those who don’t vote for the government, which isn’t realistic.
