While the EU’s right-wing parties are expected to make gains, these gains shouldn’t be expected to substantially alter the composition of the Parliament or the approach toward the Western Balkans
Most European pollsters predict that changes to the political composition of the European Parliament won’t be significant. Major party groups are expected to see a small drop in their MEP numbers, while identity based, right-wing parties are expected to score gains, but the magnitude of such gains is unlikely to lead to substantial change to the composition of the Parliament, in which the centre-right European People’s Party Group (EPP) currently has 26.5% of MEPs, the centrist Renew group has almost 14% and the centre-left Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D) has 21%.
The European People’s Party (EPP) group is likely to remain the biggest group, with the highest coalition potential. The main question that remains is who the EPP will form the European Parliament’s ruling coalition with, since the ECR group (European Conservatives and Reformists), a slightly Eurosceptic group, is likely to have more than 10% of MEPs.
The integration process will be impacted by the choices of EU voters on issues like the climate crisis, the global economic crisis, the migrant crisis, the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s war in Ukraine
The new coalition may be broad, from centre-left to the parties of the political right, or may be focused on liberal, centrist and right-wing parties. One should also bear in mind that many right-wing parties have abandoned their commitment to initiate new kinds of Brexits. The failure of Brexit to resolve any issue in Britain, while eclipsing the country’s Conservative Party, have reduced the appetite for new EU-exits. This gives the EPP group even more room to manoeuvre.
UK news magazine The Economist predicted in its World Ahead 2024 edition that the U.S. elections would be more important to shaping the future of the Union than the elections for the European Parliament in June, and this assessment still seems to be valid. One shouldn’t expect significant changes regarding the EU’s policy on the Western Balkans. Russia’s war in Ukraine will probably continue to be a more important catalyst of further EU enlargement policies than the composition of the ruling coalition in the European Parliament. The issues that will dominate the EU elections, as identified by Ivan Krastev and Mark Leonard, are the legacies of the climate crisis, the global economic crisis, the migrant crisis, the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s war in Ukraine. The future of EU integration for the Western Balkans will depend largely on how these five hottest political and social topics in the EU link with EU enlargement to our region, as well as Ukraine and Moldova.
