The right-wing political spectrum that’s on the rise today includes parties that have very different views on Russia or the order of the European Union. But that isn’t overly important because it’s unlikely that they will join the European Parliament’s ruling majority
It has been an historical trend for European Parliament elections to become increasingly important for European politics. This came as a consequence of the expanding of this institution’s powers following the last change in the founding treaties of the EU, as well as the fact that high-ranking politicians from member states are increasingly becoming MEPs. In the previous elections of 2019, we saw an increase in the turnout for European elections after a long time. If the EU continues to reform itself in the years ahead, under the influence of geopolitical circumstances, the European Parliament can be expected to gain an even more important role.
Current polls suggest that right-of-centre parties could increase their MEP numbers and possibly control a quarter of European Parliament seats. Here it is primarily important to emphasise the heterogeneity of these groups. Some of them are radically extreme or far-right parties, while others are more or less accepted as constructive partners, such as the party of Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. These parties won’t act in unison on many fronts, such as the stance regarding Russia or the EU’s internal order. It is also almost certain that they won’t enter the ranks of the Parliament’s ruling majority, which is expected to be retained by centrist parties.
If the EU continues to reform itself in the years ahead, under the influence of geopolitical circumstances, the European Parliament can be expected to gain an even more important role
On the flip side, the increased presence of rightist parties in the European Parliament will primarily increase the wiggle room of the Christian Democratic European People’s Party (EPP), which could “threaten” more progressive political groups (social democrats and liberals) by voting with the right on some issues. The EPP’s priorities are thus much more likely to be adopted than they were before. We can also talk about a shift in the climate within the European Parliament, in which topics that are important to rightwing parties (immigration, the fight against gender policies, environmental targets, advocating for less EU control when it comes to the rule of law, and the like) will simply be more prevalent and will probably be taken over by some “mainstream” parties.
And despite all this, no major turnaround in the EU’s foreign and strategic policy is expected after June’s European Parliament elections. This also applies to the enlargement policy, which has been slowly gaining importance since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine. Given that centrist European parties will almost certainly retain the majority, plans to reform the EU can be expected to continue after June, and this also includes the chances of realising future enlargement increasing more than it has over the previous ten years.
