The Western Balkan countries’ public investment needs are incomparably higher than the amount earmarked for the plan, which means that it will continue to be extremely important for these countries to have access to the international capital market
The countries of the Western Balkans are back in the “focus” of EU policy following several years in which all attention was focused on the conflict in Ukraine. Following a certain degree of mutual fatigue in cooperation between the EU and the Western Balkan countries, due primarily to contrasting interpretations of that cooperation, it is as if Europe’s developed countries realised that the Western Balkan region – and Serbia in particular, as the largest economy in that region – also has other alternatives besides the EU when it comes to economic, financial and political cooperation.
China’s rising economic influence and Russia’s political influence in Serbia send a signal to the EU that it must lead a more active policy in the region if it wants to integrate it into EU structures. This was stressed openly by Hungarian Prime Minister Orbán in a recent interview with the Austrian media, with him adding that the number one priority of Hungary’s EU presidency, from 1st July 2024, will be Serbia’s swift integration in order to prevent the country from slipping towards China or Russia. As such, the €6 billion European growth plan should represent the main motivational “carrot” for Western Balkan countries.
An emphasis should be placed on applying the highest standards in the construction of infrastructure, as well as advanced technologies that would raise the level of competitiveness of the Western Balkan countries
Although the European growth plan seems impressive at first glance, it is but a drop in the ocean when compared to the grants awarded to Croatia, Romania and Bulgaria in their accession processes. This is particularly accurate when considering that the plan in question applies to five (or 6, according to the EU) Western Balkan countries. On the other hand, the public investment needs of the Western Balkan countries are incomparably higher than the amount earmarked for the plan, which means that it will continue to be extremely important for these countries to have access to the international capital market. The priority in the Western Balkans’ development should be given to connecting these countries in terms of infrastructure (roads, energy connections, transport and information infrastructure), as well as increasing mutual exchanges of goods and services. An emphasis should be placed on applying the highest standards in the construction of infrastructure, as well as advanced technologies that would raise the level of competitiveness of the region’s countries.
As for Serbia and the nationalised plan to develop through EXPO 27, it is striking that there has been no presenting of the study that was prepared (by consulting company Horváth) with the aim of acquiring this project. As with any investment study, it should have considered the cost-effectiveness of the project, the kind of financial construction envisaged, the expected effects until 2027 and beyond etc., all the way up to the financial and socioeconomic analysis of the return on the investment. Unfortunately, political events unfolding in 2024 threaten to cast serious doubt over the possibility of utilising funds from the European plan due to the setting of political conditions. And this would cause the complete disruption of Serbia’s plans and the possibility of achieving high growth rates (the World Bank predicts growth of 4.5% for Serbia in 2025).
