Even during the times of the harshest sanctions imposed during the 1990s, enough food products were still available in Serbia. Temporary shortages of such products can only occur as a consequence of mistaken economic policies
In the case of the introduction of sanctions, we can be quite certain that would result in the worsening of relations between the Serbian and Russian political leadership. I estimate it as being unlikely that Russia would apply harsher measures against Serbia, such as halting gas supplies and the like, because in the long run that would lead to the loss of its stronghold among the Serbian people. The Russian leadership would probably try to attribute the possible imposing of sanctions to Serbia’s “unpopular pro-Western leadership”, but it would try to maintain its close affinity with the Serbian people, while seeking out new partners on the Serbian political scene. I think the economic cost of imposing sanctions against Russia would be an increase in gas prices for Serbia, probably combined with the suspending or annulling of the free trade agreement with Russia. The rise in the price of gas would have a negative impact on the entire economy and the citizens of Serbia in a certain period, while the suspension of the FTA would hit the parts of the economy that had significant exports to Russia, such as producers of fruit and vegetables.
In the case of the European Union, some form of punishment for Serbia should be expected to take the form of a suspension of EU accession talks and the withdrawing or reducing of financial assistance to Serbia. The harshest possible measure that one could expect, but which I don’t think is very likely, would be some kind of recommendation not to invest in Serbia for companies from the EU, or from key EU countries like Germany, Austria and Italy.
I estimate it as unlikely that Russia would apply harsher measures against Serbia, such as halting gas supplies and the like, because in the long run that would lead to the loss of its stronghold among the Serbian people
I don’t think the EU would go further than that, and imposing harsher measures would only serve, in the long run, to distance Serbia from the EU and push it towards Russia and China. Any significant reduction in EU investments would hit the Serbian economy hard, because it would cause a slowdown in economic growth and the stagnation of employment and standards, while problems would also arise in terms of financing the balance of payments and servicing external debts. That would all lead to increased pressure on the weakening dinar, and could also result in rising inflation.
When it comes to supplying basic foodstuffs, none of these scenarios threaten Serbia because it is a major producer and exporter of such products. Even during the times of the harshest sanctions imposed during the 1990s, enough food products were still available in Serbia. Temporary shortages of such products can only occur as a consequence of mistaken economic policies, such as controlling prices administratively etc.
