I don’t have particularly high expectations when it comes to the establishing of free access to the labour market in the Western Balkans. I don’t expect it to significantly influence labour migration in these lands, primarily due to the fact that these three countries can’t compete with the labour market of the European Union. It could lead to the intensifying of short-term cyclical migrations, as well as work in these countries’ border areas
Indications suggest that it is possible to “transfer” certain profiles of workers that are needed on the labour markets of these three countries, for example by transferring construction workers from Albania to Serbia, with workers in the hospitality sector and tourism heading in the opposite direction. However, I’m not optimistic that such a thing will reach a critical mass. It is also fairly certain that the same labour migration processes, or very similar ones, will continue to take place on all three markets and that unifying them will not lead to the arrival or retaining of the highly specialised workers that are required, because they tend to choose other markets.
It is possible that Serbia will attract the most workers, given that it offers the most favourable working conditions for certain areas of work (primarily in socalled tradesman occupations), for which there are specialised contractors in the other two countries. The opening up of the regional labour market won’t have a major impact on workers in Serbia.
Given that the unified labour market is envisaged as having only a small effect, there will certainly still be a need to entice workers from other countries
A potential negative effect is possible in terms of falling wages in those sectors where they have risen significantly, due primarily to an extreme shortage of workers and growing demand. If this does happen, I expect the effect to be short-lived, given the constant demand for such occupations and how unrealistic it is to expect continuous waves of this type of labour migration to Serbia.
When it comes to the applying of labour legislation workers from each of the three countries will receive the same treatment as domestic workers. This means that their rights will be respected and protected in accordance with the same principles and based on the same legal mechanisms. This naturally implies the existence of identical problems with the protection of those rights – problems that are already known in each of these countries, and that, in this sense, no major advances will be achieved in any direction. When it comes to workers from the region emigrating to the EU, I think it will continue unhindered. The three countries’ local labour markets are unable to compete with the working conditions offered by EU member states. In terms of the influx of workers from other countries, mainly Asian and African, I also don’t expect significant changes, because a need to entice workers from other countries will still exist.
