Strategic and economic interests – such as the Jadar lithium project – continues to drive EU support for stable authoritarian governance in Serbia. A change of leadership would not only jeopardise those economic plans, but also risk sparking resistance, which is why President Vučić’s position is in fact being bolstered rather than brought into question.
President Vučić’s recent visit to Moscow was neither a turning point nor a diplomatic whim, rather it was an act aligned with the deeply contradictory logic of Serbia’s peripheral capitalism. The country functions in a semi-colonial mode – formally sovereign, yet effectively under the sway of foreign capital and centres of political power. Domestically, pro-Russian rhetoric is used as a legitimising tool to appeal to the regime’s electoral base. Yet, in reality, the levers of fiscal, military, security and foreign policy are subject to the influence of the U.S. Embassy and Western-dominated global financial institutions.
Within such a framework, one shouldn’t expect a strong reaction from European leaders. On the geopolitical stage, the U.S. and Russia – despite the ongoing war in Ukraine – are still probing for common ground, particularly in view of an impending global showdown between the U.S. and China for global supremacy in the 21st century. In this context, President Trump seeks to draw Russia closer, mirroring Nixon’s Cold War strategy of aligning with China against the USSR. As such, the U.S. has no interest in destabilising any regime on Europe’s periphery that could act as a communication channel with Moscow or serve as a Trojan horse in potential confrontations with the EU – an entity which, according to a senior American official, currently finds itself in a vassal- like position, but may ultimately strive for strategic autonomy.
As long as he secures economic concessions, resources and stability, Vučić’s authoritarianism will be tolerated as a useful deviation. The struggle for a different Serbia must extend beyond a mere change in leadership – it must dismantle the entire model of peripheral dependency
Beyond geopolitical considerations, material interests also call for a maintaining of the status quo. Despite its performative pro-Russian narrative, Vučić’s government continues to sell arms to Ukraine and has long allowed Western capital to treat Serbia as a low-cost, low-regulation economic outpost. Cheap labour, generous state subsidies, weakened labour rights and unimpeded access to natural resources have made Serbia one of the most profitable sites for value extraction on Europe’s periphery – wealth that finances billionaire-owned media outlets and the election campaigns of leaders perceived, often naively, as standard- bearers of European democratic values.
Preserving such a privileged relationship hinges on maintaining a strong, centralised and repressive state that’s capable of absorbing social tensions and delivering the ‘stability’ required for capital accumulation. The lithium issue underscores this dynamic. Confronted with its own shortage of strategic raw materials, the EU is fully aware that only an authoritarian government can deliver a project like the Jadar mine – one that involves the trampling of local communities, environmental standards and political opposition. A potential change of government would open space for destabilisation, contractual review and mass resistance.
Hence, not only is pressure on Vučić absent – his position is being quietly stabilised as vital to executing economic and strategic objectives. This was clearly demonstrated during his recent meeting in Paris with the French President.
In other words, the ongoing ‘four pillars’ policy doesn’t reflect Serbia’s autonomy, but instead masks its dependence: a façade of balance concealing deep subjugation to all powers apart from its own people. It is therefore unrealistic to expect Vučić’s Moscow visit to disrupt his relations with the West. As long as he delivers what truly matters – economic concessions, access to resources and political stability – his authoritarianism will be treated as a functional aberration and not a threat.
