The malevolent nature of Trump’s intentions isn’t disputed; the question is whether American democracy has strong enough safeguards to contain those intentions
Donald Trump’s more than convincing victory in the U.S. presidential election of 5th November marks a significant turning point for the world. It is necessary to couch this victory in the broader context of the growth of the political right and the extreme right; parties with conservative worldviews in European countries like the Netherlands, Italy, Germany, Slovakia, Austria, or even, for instance, in India.
The U.S., as the country that remains the world’s strongest, with the largest economy, certainly has a greater influence over world trends than others. Agreement exists that unpredictability represents Trump’s key characteristic. It is also true, however, that he is much more prepared this time around to take on his second term as the 47th president of the U.S. He has noted that one of his primary goals on the domestic front will be to take revenge for all the actions that he claims have been taken against him by both individuals and institutions of the state. The malevolent nature of his intentions isn’t disputed, but what remains unknown is his ability to implement his intentions and, in accordance with that, the question of how resilient U.S. democratic institutions will prove in resisting those moves – in colloquial terms, whether there are strong enough safeguards to prevent his intentions.
American society is divided. He was victorious and now controls almost all key branches of government, both executive and legislative, and will attempt to subordinate the judiciary (we will see if he can really succeed in that).
In this constellation, the Western Balkans – including Serbia – aren’t a high priority for the incoming U.S. administration… The EU is their home port and anchor
On the economic front, protectionism will be at the foundation of his policies. He has stated that “tariff” (customs barriers, excise duties) is his favourite word. Europe and China will be the first in the firing line, but many economists warn that this could have very detrimental consequences for the U.S. economy and entrepreneurs. We also shouldn’t forget the example of China, which holds approximately nine hundred billion dollars of U.S. debt.
This all means that geopolitical circumstances will be complicated, to say the least. When it comes to transatlantic relations, it is difficult to predict at present whether he will seek the U.S.’s withdrawal from NATO or “merely” a cooling of relations, i.e., a reduction in the U.S. contribution to Europe’s defence and security. He has stated that he would resolve the Russo-Ukrainian War in 24 hours (with typical Trumpian arrogance). Ukraine should certainly prepare to receive significantly less support, if not the complete suspension of American aid. Europe and the EU are already preparing to take on the biggest burden and to help Ukraine by themselves. The war in the Middle East is the second major challenge and support for Israel will certainly be as high as it’s been to date, or even higher, leading to even greater uncertainty over the end of this conflict.
Trump’s first term was marked by his opposition to multipolar institutions and prioritising of transactional, direct relations with other countries – all of which yielded mixed results.
In this constellation, the Western Balkans – including Serbia – aren’t a high priority for the incoming U.S. administration. The region represents part of Europe geographically and geopolitically, and its countries aspire to join the EU, which is their home port and anchor, but they should certainly also strive to find their interests in relations with the new administration in Washington.
Photo: OSCE Parliamentary Assembly from Copenhagen, Denmark, CC BY-SA 2.0 , via Wikimedia Commons
