It is likely that the new government will be less autocratic and more flexible. However, this won’t ease the opposition’s task of building a clear political programme and running a campaign in order to create a stable platform for future political battles
I think the results of the elections were expected by the Serbian government, though perhaps the regime didn’t expect the reactions to the blatant electoral fraud. So, the irregularities may now open the issue of political legitimacy for Vučić’s SNS, at least when it comes to Belgrade. At the level of the capital city, there are two main options: either SNS will form a new political coalition, most probably with conspiracy theorist Nestorović; or it will consent to a repetition of the vote. The first scenario is more likely, as Vučić would never acknowledge that he stole votes. Moreover, international pressure on Belgrade has been weakening, with the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East and other regions of the world having already occupied the attention of European leaders, who will probably be more inclined to continue accepting Vučić’s rule than to support the Serbian opposition – which is too heterogeneous and fragmented over foreign policy issues, namely Kosovo.
In my opinion, there is no sense in the opposition rejecting the mandates it has secured. No opposition coalition has secured this many mandates since Vučić first came to power: in 12 years, this was the first time that a party (or presidential candidate) overcame the benchmark of 20% of votes. Given the regime’s absolute media monopoly, the unfair conditions ahead of elections and the electoral irregularities, the opposition must be proud of such a result and shouldn’t relinquish its fight even within the assemblies that it has entered.
The Serbia Against Violence coalition, born from mass protests, now maintains a consistent strategy across institutions, the international community, and the streets, seeking to revitalise political momentum in the place where its fight began
However, the ‘Serbia Against Violence’ (SNP) coalition has not accepted the results and will continue to protest – as it has said – on three fronts: institutions, international community, and the streets. This is a consistent strategy: the SNP was born as a mass protest and is now trying to draw new political lifeblood on the streets, where it began its fight.
When it comes to future scenarios, it is hard to predict long-term outcomes. However, the regime must acknowledge that it cannot get away with everything. Serbia has long been in the international spotlight. Over the last two years, Serbia has not aligned with Western foreign policy and sanctions against Russia, representing the only European country – and EU candidate – to do so; it fuelled several bouts of unrest in Kosovo, culminating in the Banjska affair, with serious doubts that the commando was directly supported and controlled from Belgrade. None of these happenings resulted in Serbia being sanctioned, and it is now back in the spotlight because of election fraud. I think this will push for a change in the new government, which should appear less autocratic and more open to negotiation. In general, I think the government will have a more European appearance, perhaps by dissolving its coalition with the Socialist Party of Serbia. On the other hand, the opposition must unite behind a political programme that extends beyond merely opposing Vučić. It must show that, besides street protests, it also has a clearly defined political offer and a political identity, in order to create a stable platform for future political battles.
