Determination regarding major social issues, regardless of how important they are to the people, doesn’t automatically lead to changes in voter preferences
The mass disaffection of Serbia’s citizens caused by the announcement of lithium mining is certainly already having an impact on the country’s political scene, including the current government’s position. This impact is demonstrated in two ways. The first is through the dissatisfaction of a section of SNS voters with government policy. This relates to an issue that can very easily reach the “hearts and souls” of voters, thanks to its populist potential that isn’t negligible. Part of the SNS voters, the part referred to in political analyses as the “soft underbelly”, is so dissatisfied with the government’s support for the Jadar project that it will turn towards other options. However, we should neither overestimate the number of those people nor the resoluteness of their decision. Most people vote for SNS because of their conviction that it is essential for the country to have a firm hand embodied in the form of a strong leader. That’s why the government responds to the protests by bringing into play its strongest trump card – President Vučić.
It is very important that people in places that have never previously experienced political protests actively engaged, but a question remains when it comes to successfully articulating this discontent and providing a credible alternative
Determination regarding major social issues, regardless of how important they are to the people, doesn’t automatically lead to changes in voter preferences. This is also demonstrated by the issue of Kosovo, which is at least declaratively important to a large number of citizens, though at no time has that importance been reflected in election results. Neither have those who insisted on this topic achieved significant results, nor has the government that’s practically eradicated the final remnants of the Serbian state in Kosovo ever been punished by voters for doing so.
The second consequence of the battle against lithium mining could have a much greater impact. Specifically, Vučić’s authority is based on fear, like every other authoritarian government around the world. In order to establish personal power, and particularly to maintain it, it is essential that the citizenry lives in fear, locked in some kind of permanent state of emergency that prevents them from fighting for their own interests, participating in public life and evaluating the government critically. The huge mobilisation potential of the struggle against lithium mining could result in people overcoming that fear, and consequently realising that SNS isn’t the only option and that they can try something else, without fearing the consequences for themselves and the country. Other issues, like the aforementioned Kosovo, have almost no mobilisation potential, as has been shown throughout all these years. Even people living in places that have never previously experienced political protests headed onto the streets and squares to oppose the mining of lithium. People who aren’t afraid to express their sense of discontentment are a crucial problem for any authoritarian government, including ours. The result will, of course, depend largely on the opposition’s ability to politically articulate this discontent and offer itself up as a credible alternative.
Photo: mc.rs
