EU enlargement has been treated as an important security matter since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, providing more encouragement to candidate countries than the documents signed in Berlin that aim to integrate the region economically
Angela Merkel, who has just published her memoirs, was responsible for launching the initiative intended to integrate the Western Balkans that is known as the Berlin Process. Despite the tangible results achieved by the Berlin Process over the past decade, there is still debate over whether it represents a shortcut or a substitute for EU membership. When initiating the process that recently marked its tenth anniversary, Merkel – in her then capacity as German Chancellor – emphasised that strengthening regional cooperation and fostering political and economic connectivity were crucial to accelerating the reforms required for EU accession. However, as long as the war narratives of the 1990s and the taboos built around them remain paramount, the Berlin Process is limited, as it seemingly attempts to return the region to a position it would have been in if Yugoslavia had been disbanded without disintegrating into war.
At this year’s 10th Berlin Process Summit, held in Berlin on 14th October, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz offered encouragement to the Western Balkans. However, they opted for a new model of encouragement: since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, EU enlargement has been framed as a critical security issue, which is a perspective that provides greater optimism than the documents signed in Berlin to promote the region’s economic integration. With this acceleration of history, as Olaf Scholz hinted, waiting another ten years may not be an option. Meanwhile, in addressing 46 leaders gathered at the Budapest Summit of the European Political Community, Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić remarked that everyone in Europe must recognise that the world has changed.
The Black Swan may be a gripping psychological thriller starring Natalie Portman, but it’s also a metaphor for unforeseen events with severe consequences, a concept popularised by statistician and risk analyst Nassim Nicholas Taleb, who is incidentally also an essayist and former Wall Street trader.
After Nixon in 1970, Ford in 1975 and Carter in 1980, could Trump become only the fourth U.S. President to visit Belgrade, or will Trump’s Serbian supporters need to make a pilgrimage to Budapest
Dutch explorers were the first Europeans to encounter black swans back in 1697, on the west coast of what is now Australia. It had been previously believed that only white swans exist. For the Serbian government, the tragedy at the Novi Sad train station is a “black swan” event that has once again seen tragedy injecting political dynamics into Serbia.
Donald Trump’s victory is, for now, a “white swan” for Vučić. The opposition fears, perhaps to the point of despair, that international circumstances may once again work in Vučić’s favour. Even the reputable Gallup Poll confirmed that Trump’s highest support in Europe was recorded in Serbia. It is also true that Serbian Americans participated in U.S. elections in an organised and focused manner for the first time. Vučić’s administration has cultivated good relations with individuals close to Trump.
After Nixon in 1970, Ford in 1975 and Carter in 1980, could Trump become only the fourth U.S. President to visit Belgrade, or will Trump’s Serbian supporters need to make a pilgrimage to Budapest, as Orbán precedes Vučić? Will Budapest be visited like one would visit the Hungaroring circuit, or to see the Rolling Stones when Serbia was off their radar, or akin to Catholics visiting the Pope? Could Orbán and Vučić organise Trump’s visit together, ensuring he visits both capitals? Ideally, Trump would visit Pranjani, the site of Operation Halyard, which resulted in Serbian royalists rescuing U.S. pilots during World War II. But that is assuming, of course, that Serbs aren’t disappointed in the meantime.