The Serbian government is going against the grain of public opinion regarding the lithium mine, while concerns over the ecological impact and disruption to life permeate all social strata
The attempt to assassinate Donald J. Trump during a campaign rally in Pennsylvania shook the U.S. presidential election to its core. Ten days later, polling shows that Trump has retained his lead over his Democrat opponent, while the attempt on his life has indirectly led to more turmoil in the ranks of the Democrats.
This turmoil is so great that the question of President Biden’s viability as a candidate is now at the forefront of American politics. With calls for him to step down mounting, he formally withdrew from the presidential race on 21st July and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democrat candidate to take on Trump.
At this early stage of a major change in the presidential race, we note that polls show Trump holding a lead over Harris, albeit a slight one. As the election acquires a new dynamic, we retain the baseline scenario – the return to the White House of Trump and ‘America First’ policies.
Across the Atlantic, the EU’s mainstream parties survived June’s EU Parliament elections and retained their majority. While the far right has made inroads, it hasn’t reached power in any of the major countries, with France being the closest call.
The main concern now is that a victorious Trump will endeavour to strike a quick deal with Russia and Ukraine on ending the war, spelling a loss of territory for Ukraine and a very shaky armistice. This might be enough for him, but it surely won’t be for Europe, where the vast majority of governments would view this as opposing their security interests. Steps to shore up European financial support for Ukraine have been strong, and Ukraine is now – along with Moldova – formally on track to join the EU at some point in the future. But Ukraine is on the defensive militarily, and the aid from Europe alone is unlikely to be enough to fully prop up Kyiv.
Despite lofty goals, the green transition remains elusive, and coupled with some questionable national decisions, such as opting to close some nuclear power plants
With Trump’s win, a new era of antagonistic economic relations would follow, but that would merely be a new signal of the slow winding down of open globalisation. Trump will focus on competition with China and try to engage the EU to that effect, while protecting narrow U.S. economic interests. And even if the Democratic candidate wins, China will remain in Washington’s focus and the EU will have to strengthen its economic policies.
The EU has no social media, digital or AI champions among the global heavyweights. Despite lofty goals, the green transition remains elusive, and coupled with some questionable national decisions, such as opting to close some nuclear power plants. When it comes to electric vehicles, the EU is lagging far behind its U.S. (Tesla) and Chinese competitors (BYD, CATL) in terms of plug-in stations and battery development.
In an attempt to catch up, the EU is turning to Serbia, where focus has now shifted to the lithium deposits in rural Jadar valley. Rio Tinto has the rights to explore and mine the quality deposits, while the European – primarily German – auto industry has a vital interest in securing the supply of this critical material that’s required for the effective production of EV batteries.
The Serbian government is going against the grain of public opinion regarding the lithium mine, while concerns over the ecological impact and disruption to life permeate all social strata. The government sees this as an important opportunity to link the Serbian economy across the EV value chain. It also wants to endear itself to Berlin and Brussels at a time when Belgrade’s position on Russia, the dispute over Kosovo and an effectively stalled EU integration process make for strained relations.
Here we see just how palpable the linkage between global competition and local politics is. And Serbia is an integral part of the nearshoring logic of developing supply chains for the future.