The ruling coalition is the favourite to win parliamentary and provincial elections, while the race for Belgrade will be very uncertain. Estimates that the ruling party has lost Belgrade are premature. The turnout will be an important factor in the upcoming elections, given that Serbian citizens have weaned themselves off voting during winter
The announcement of December elections surprised the general public in Serbia. And Serbian President Vučić raised the political stakes we he announced that there subsequently won’t be any elections until 2027, because that means that the December vote will determine political life for the next three to four years. Secondly, it is clear that following 11 years of such frequent elections, four of which were extraordinary elections, neither the ruling parties nor the opposition can carry on as before. The ruling coalition is “tired” of frequent elections, with voter discipline waning and the need for internal reforms within the Serbian Progressive Party only set to grow. The opposition won’t be able to continue with a campaign in which it wins votes more due to dissatisfaction with the government than thanks to its own good organisation, campaign, election promises and communication.
The priorities of citizens on the eve of these elections are Kosovo, prices, living standards, corruption, internal political life and security issues, or stability. These are also issues that have to be given importance in the election campaign, but electoral success will be influenced more by the way these issues are communicated: on how plausible the parties are in their public appearances; the trust they’ve gained and their ability to lead a campaign. The ruling coalition is homogeneous and its campaign will rely on communicating its achievements and results, with Vučić presenting all messages. The important issues for the left-centrist opposition will include violence, corruption, the media and the state of democracy. Meanwhile, Kosovo will be the absolute leading issue for the nationalist opposition.
After these elections, the opposition won’t be able to continue with a campaign in which it wins votes more due to dissatisfaction with the government than thanks to its own good organisation, campaign, election promises and communication
The ruling coalition is the favourite to win parliamentary and provincial elections, while the race for Belgrade will be very uncertain. Estimates that the ruling party has lost Belgrade are premature. As such, the key question in Belgrade is whether it will be possible for opposition parties to collaborate after the elections, because it isn’t out of the question that securing a majority in the city will depend on one or two mandates. All things considered, achieving post-election cooperation among the opposition parties won’t be an easy process.
The EU and Western partners will cooperate with the winners of the elections, regardless of who they are.
Ultimately, the turnout will be an important factor in the upcoming elections. Serbian citizens have weaned themselves off voting during winter, as they last voted in winter back in 2007. Given that the turnout was exceptionally high in 2022, particularly in Belgrade, and in the case that the weather is cold on this 17th December and a “dirty” campaign is led, a lower turnout than 2022 shouldn’t be ruled out.
