Serbia’s economy is experiencing a marked slowdown, primarily driven by the stagnation of Germany and other European Union economies, says Branimir Jovanović, economist at the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw).
Speaking to the Beta news agency, Jovanović explained that Serbia’s economy resembles “a rabbit that challenged a tortoise to a race” — fast out of the gate, but now visibly slowing. After two years of relatively high growth in 2022 and 2023, the Serbian economy is now cooling down.
“There are clear signs of this: industrial production is declining, budget revenues are falling, and retail trade is stagnating. The figures from the first two months of 2024 already show this very clearly,” Jovanović said.
He pointed out that Germany — Serbia’s key economic partner and the main destination for its exports — has stagnated for six consecutive quarters, which has directly affected Serbia’s export potential and overall economic momentum. According to Jovanović, economic stagnation in the EU significantly reduces the chances for Serbia to record solid growth this year.
Although Serbia has recently witnessed large-scale student-led protests, Jovanović noted that their impact on the economy is minimal so far. “The protests are not affecting the economy in any major way. Their effects are more political and social than economic,” he said.
Looking ahead, he cautioned that if the EU economy continues to underperform, Serbia may need to revise its growth expectations for the rest of the year. “The Serbian government has set ambitious growth targets, but these may be difficult to reach if external conditions remain unfavourable,” Jovanović concluded.