The European Commission forecasts growth of Serbia’s gross domestic product of 3.4 per cent this year and 3.8 per cent in 2023, according to published spring forecasts. According to the data published on the EC’s website, the Serbian economy will grow faster than the European Union and the Eurozone, which predict growth rates in 2022 and 2023 of 2.7 per cent and 2.3 per cent, respectively.
In the section dedicated to Serbia, the Commission points out that after a strong economic expansion of 7.4 per cent in 2021, the GDP growth of our country, as well as the entire EU and the Eurozone, will be under the pressure of economic influences of Russia’s war against Ukraine.
The EC says Serbia’s growth will be driven mainly by private consumption and investment, which is expected to offset the small negative contribution of net exports to growth.
The growth of private consumption in 2022, the EC projects at 3.7 per cent, and next year at 3.8 per cent, while the growth rate of public spending in the same period is estimated at 0.1 and 0.7 per cent, respectively.
As for the export of goods and services, an increase of 8.6 per cent this year and 8.5 per cent is expected next year, while the growth of imports of goods and services, according to the Commission, will be 8.1 per cent this year and 7.3 per cent in the next.
The report also predicts that inflation will peak in mid-2022 and then slow down from autumn. Specifically, the EC estimates the inflation rate in Serbia at 8.5 per cent this year, after which it will fall to 4.6 per cent next year.
According to EU executive forecasts, the general government budget deficit will fall to 3.1 per cent of GDP this year, and to 1.8 per cent of the country’s gross domestic product in 2023.
It is anticipated also the reduction of the public debt of Serbia in this and next year to 54.5 per cent, ie 52.5 per cent of GDP, respectively.