The geopolitical and security rivalry between the U.S. and China will shape the international system, in which other countries, including Serbia, will face the major challenge of having to ponder how to position themselves
The latest round of talks between China and leading European countries like Germany and France shows that, for Europe, China remains a strategic dilemma that’s difficult to solve. China isn’t abandoning the European market, but it is still aware that relations have been disturbed, particularly following the Covid-19 pandemic and the outbreak of war in Ukraine. China chose to tour three European countries – France, as the EU’s de facto political leader, and Serbia and Hungary, as two countries with ruling elites who are open to China – in order to show that China continues to have influence in Europe. On the flip side, the EU still considers China as being increasingly important for the socioeconomic prosperity of Europe, but a threat is seen in China when it comes to the Asian giant’s potential ability to dictate global technology standards and the rules of international trade, as well as the prospects of it dominating global supply chains and international economic institutions. This is the main reason that the EU treats China as an economic partner while defining it in its strategic documents as a “systemic rival”; a rival that advocates for a different conception of the international system than the European one.
It isn’t such an anomaly compared to the rest of Europe that Serbia cooperates with China because it is aware that China is still on the rise in an economic sense
In this respect, it isn’t such an anomaly compared to the rest of Europe that Serbia cooperates with China because it is aware that China is still on the rise in an economic sense. The moment Serbian cooperation with China becomes a problem is the moment Serbia cooperates with China in a way that’s perceived as China approaching from the position of a “systemic rival”. That’s when China erodes the EU’s appeal or implements projects that aren’t harmonised with EU standards. However, it isn’t the EU that’s the main obstacle to the Serbian-Chinese partnership, but rather the U.S., which sees China as its only direct challenger in the 21st century. Serbia is already demonstrating its awareness of the American factor in its cooperation with China, with nobody talking anymore about Chinese companies installing 5G infrastructure in Serbia, while defence was one area not included in the memorandums exchanged between the Serbian and Chinese sides during the visits.
Russia is slightly different, as it was previously also a partner to many European governments. Still, given that we’ve seen the burning of bridges between Europe and Russia since the original 2014 crisis in Ukraine, and especially after 2022, Serbian-Russian relations are starting to be perceived as a potential threat and a platform for Moscow to disrupt EU interests in the Balkans.
Russia will be a challenge, but China remains the dilemma of the 21st century, because the geopolitical and security rivalry between the U.S. and China will shape the international system, creating a geopolitical positioning dilemma for all other countries, including Serbia.
