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Nicolas Marquier, Regional Manager for the Western Balkans at the IFC

Financing the Future

IFC, the largest global development institution, has provided almost $1 billion in financing to Serbia’s private sector over the past six years IFC, as a...

Iosif Vangelatos, General Manager, Inos Balkan

Proud of Tripling Trade Volume

Inos Balkan already possessed extensive expertise in the recycling sector, with its collection and processing centres, while it has today transformed itself successfully to...

Aris Karousos, CEO of Eko Serbia

Drivers Know Why They Choose Eko

Two decades ago, when this company launched its operations in Serbia, the desire was for the EKO brand to become synonymous with reliability, quality...

Danilo Đurović, General Manager, Autotechnica Serbia – Hertz

Introducing Flex Drive

As part of the Autohellas Group, which has been the absolute leader of Greece’s automotive sector since 1974, Hertz is more than just a...

Nikos Veropoulos, Owner, Veropoulos

Super Vero, Super Successful

For two decades already, company Veropoulos has been known on our market for its unique offer and high-quality products at promotional prices, but also...

Milan Nedeljković, Dean And An Associate Professor At FEFA, Belgrade

Risks Aren’t A Good Friend To Investment

Political risk and uncertainty aren’t good friends to a stimulating investment environment. As such, any rise in the perception of increased political risk for foreign investors in Serbia implies a reduction in their interest in investing in the country

During all periods of serious geopolitical disturbances, significant economic challenges and risks are faced by small, open economies like Serbia’s. In the event that the conflict in Ukraine becomes protracted, we can expect – regardless of Serbia’s commitment to sanctions against Russia – continued inflationary pressures and a slowdown in Serbia’s economic growth during 2022 and 2023. At the same time, the currently announced (according to the latest interest rate projections published by the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank until 2024) tightening of monetary policy in developed countries will lead to tighter conditions for borrowing and servicing existing debt, which will have a negative impact on the budgets of households over the next two years, but also company balance sheets and investment decisions. In the case of the scenario that you mention in the form of sanctions imposed against Russia, I don’t think either decision would lead to a catastrophic scenario for the Serbian economy and a shortage of basic necessities.

In the event that the conflict in Ukraine becomes protracted, we can expect – regardless of Serbia’s commitment to sanctions against Russia – continued inflationary pressures and a slowdown in Serbia’s economic growth during 2022 and 2023

However, Political risk and uncertainty aren’t good friends to a stimulating investment environment. As such, any rise in the perception of increased political risk for foreign investors in Serbia implies a reduction in their interest in investing in the country, particularly now that the global liquidity cake is shrinking and investors are becoming even more selective in the decisions they make. And that’s the case whether it relates to foreign direct investment or portfolio investments that are also important for the functioning of the domestic financial market and financing the start-up community. On the flip side, the imposing of sanctions against the Russian Federation brings with it the risk of the terms of the gas arrangement being changed and the seventh largest market for exports of Serbian products and services (accounting for just under 5% of total exports in 2021) being lost. Thus, from an economic perspective, decision makers should have already implemented measures to minimise the negative implications of some of these risks materialising.

This implies credibly curbing inflationary pressures, through time-adjusted and limited increases in targeted fiscal levies/reducing certain tax burdens, and concerted efforts to improve the business environment. On the other hand, it is essential to launch new initiatives aimed at diversifying the country’s energy sources. All told, as with the fundamentals of finance, if we are aware that a risk exists, then it is necessary to hedge as soon as possible, if that hasn’t already been done on time.

Comment

Census Results Cause Concern

The Ministry of Education claims to be exerting ongoing efforts to reform education, but census results indicate the need for more work. The “Platform...

By Iva Draškić Vićanović Ph.D., Dean of the University of Belgrade Faculty of Philology

Restore Teachers’ Dignity

The proposals presented in our Platform are viable over the short term, require no large and lasting reforms and could lead to major visible...

Comment by Prof. dr Slobodan Zečević

The Mirage of the European Oasis

Serbia officially began EU accession negotiations in January 2014. Over the subsequent decade, 22 of the 35 accession negotiation chapters have been opened and...

Plamena Halacheva, Deputy Head of the Delegation of the European Union to Serbia

Easier Access to the Western Balkans’ Single Market

The EU aims to involve Western Balkans partners with its Member States on equal terms, fostering a reform partnership that’s oriented towards the future...

Scholz Champions Western Balkans’ Path to Membership

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, in Slovenia, advocated for quickening the EU accession for the Western Balkans, underlining the importance...

CEB Grants €1.3 Billion Loans to Boost Social Sectors in 11 Countries

The Council of Europe Development Bank (CEB) has sanctioned loans totaling €1.3 billion for 11 member countries, including Serbia...

Serbia Advances in Renewable Energy with Pupin Wind Park Financing

In a significant stride towards renewable energy adoption, Serbia has finalized the financial arrangements for the Pupin Wind Park,...

Đedović Handanović: Nuclear Energy in Serbia by 2039 at the Earliest

Nuclear energy in Serbia could become a reality by 2039 at the earliest, should work on the project commence...

Belgrade’s Hotel Jugoslavija Sold, Sparks Redevelopment Controversy

Belgrade's iconic Hotel Jugoslavija, located in Serbia's capital, has been sold for approximately €27 million to MV Investment, affiliated...

Scholz Champions Western Balkans’ Path to Membership

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, in Slovenia, advocated for quickening the EU accession for the Western Balkans, underlining the importance...

CEB Grants €1.3 Billion Loans to Boost Social Sectors in 11 Countries

The Council of Europe Development Bank (CEB) has sanctioned loans totaling €1.3 billion for 11 member countries, including Serbia...

Belgrade University Partners with CERN on Future Circular Collider Project

The University of Belgrade has officially become part of CERN's largest scientific endeavor, the Future Circular Collider (FCC) project,...

Kushner Eyes Balkan Luxury Developments in Serbia and Albania

Jared Kushner, closely related to former U.S. President Donald Trump as his son-in-law, is turning his attention to the...

European Parliament Passes Groundbreaking AI Law

The European Parliament has adopted the Artificial Intelligence (AI) Act, aiming to safeguard fundamental rights, democracy, the rule of...

Scholz Champions Western Balkans’ Path to Membership

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, in Slovenia, advocated for quickening the EU accession for the Western Balkans, underlining the importance...

CEB Grants €1.3 Billion Loans to Boost Social Sectors in 11 Countries

The Council of Europe Development Bank (CEB) has sanctioned loans totaling €1.3 billion for 11 member countries, including Serbia...

Belgrade University Partners with CERN on Future Circular Collider Project

The University of Belgrade has officially become part of CERN's largest scientific endeavor, the Future Circular Collider (FCC) project,...

Kushner Eyes Balkan Luxury Developments in Serbia and Albania

Jared Kushner, closely related to former U.S. President Donald Trump as his son-in-law, is turning his attention to the...

European Parliament Passes Groundbreaking AI Law

The European Parliament has adopted the Artificial Intelligence (AI) Act, aiming to safeguard fundamental rights, democracy, the rule of...
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