Estimates that the government will fall on the issue of lithium are more the fruit of emotions than something that can be concluded rationally
As soon as the Constitutional Court cancelled the government decree halting the Jadar project on 11th July, protests similar to those seen in 2021 erupted. The messages are the same and the scenography is the same or similar, while the organisers have changed to an extent, given that Savo Manojlović, organiser of the protests held three years ago, is no longer front and centre.
What could the political ramifications of protests against the Jadar project be? The only correct and honest answer is that it is today too soon to draw conclusions, because the issue of lithium mining is a political marathon, and not a 100-metre sprint. It seems, at this stage, that the ruling party has consciously abandoned the playing field to activists and the opposition, giving the impression that the government is in a defensive position. However, the targeted level is at least a year away, if not two. The government’s idea is for the opposition to use up its energy now, at a stage when the project is a long way from being implemented. The ruling party hasn’t taken advantage of even a fraction of the resources at its disposal, so the initial advantage gained by the opposition need not necessarily be the final outcome.
The odds that the Jadar project won’t have dramatic consequences for the ruling party increase if a rational dialogue can be established giving experts their say, and giving the government the opportunity to promote the project’s economic benefits. And vice versa, the opposition’s chances of success are greater if processes unfold more at protests, and less in institutions.
Communication regarding the Jadar project has been neglected, and it should now be returned to the starting point in terms of forming an informed and rational debate
The government would rather lithium was just one of several important issues, while the opposition prefers lithium to be the only important issue. The side that proves more successful in defending its narrative can expect greater success. Estimates that the government will fall on the issue of lithium are more the fruit of emotions than something that can be concluded rationally. This is a sensitive issue for the government that isn’t easy for it to manage (and the government is itself partly to blame for that), but there is ample time to address the negative consequences.
The public’s interest is no less important. Communication regarding the Jadar project has been neglected, because no government, nor the investor itself, has dealt with communicating on it transparently and carefully for 20 years. On the other hand, with the first protests we were drawn into the danger zone of decontextualised and emotionally tainted misinformation, which further fuelled the anxiety of citizens. In order to give a chance to dialogue, it is essential for all stakeholders to take a step back and offer a rational framework for the discussions. It is important for the society that any future decision be made in an informed and rational debate, as the fruit of discussion and not confrontation.
